Category Archives: Chris Dagget

New Jersey Governor: Going Down to the Wire

CQ Politics – Poll Tracker

The latest Fairleigh Dickinson University poll, conducted Oct. 22 through 28, finds the race for New Jersey governor where it’s been for most of the month: deadlocked.

In a three-way race, Republican challenger Chris Christie leads Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine 41 percent to 39 among likely voters, including those leaning one way or the other. Independent Chris Daggett takes 14 percent of the vote. The margin of error is 4 percent.

Christie continues to lead among independent voters, at 37 percent, with Daggett at 27 percent and Corzine at 22 percent. Daggett receives the support of 13 percent each of Democrats and Republican likely voters.

The vast majority of respondents have now heard of Daggett, the Fairleigh Dickinson poll finds, but 31 percent have no opinion of him. His favorable and unfavorable ratings have both risen — to 28 percent favorable and 23 percent unfavorable.

Both Christie and Corzine continue to have a net unfavorable rating among likely voters. Christie’s rating is 44 to 41 percent unfavorable-favorable, compared to 42 to 35 percent in the FDU poll released Oct. 6. Corzine is at 54 to 39 percent, almost identical to where he was at the beginning of the month.

CQ Politics currently rates the race a Tossup.

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Filed under Chris Christie, Chris Dagget, CQ politics, Gov. Jon Corzine, New Jersey, opinion poll

Corzine Up By 9% in New Poll Over Christie

By Chris Megerian/Statehouse Bureau
October 26, 2009

New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine has a nine-point lead vs. Republican gubernatorial candidate Chris Christie, according to a Suffolk University poll released today.

With eight days left until the election and most polls showing the New Jersey governor’s race as too close to call, the Suffolk University poll showed Corzine leading 42 percent to 33 percent and places independent candidate Chris Daggett far behind at 7 percent. That is the incumbent’s biggest lead all year, after Corzine spent months trailing Christie, at times by double digits.

Most recent polls have showed the governor’s race at a dead heat, with Daggett’s support as high as 20 percent.

The Suffolk poll — the first by that institution on the 2009 New Jersey governor’s race — is unusual compared with other independent surveys because it included all 12 candidates on the ballot. Most other polls have included just Corzine, Christie and Daggett, who was the only independent candidate to qualify for public matching funds and participate in the debates.

Daggett’s support dropped when his name was mixed with the other independents, as it will appear on ballots in some counties.

“Independent Chris Daggett struggles to be found on the ballot, which benefits Jon Corzine, whose campaign is peaking at the right time for him,” said David Paleologos, director of the Political Research Center at Suffolk University in Boston. “The poll tells us that voters believe Corzine is the best choice of the twelve candidates and the most comfortable choice of the major three. The bottom line is that, if this trend holds, it will be an amazing comeback for Jon Corzine.”

The poll, conducted among 400 likely voters from Oct. 22 through Oct. 25, has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points. Among the 10 percent of voters favoring one of the 10 independent candidates, 29 percent chose Christie as their second choice, while 24 percent picked Corzine, 19 percent chose another independent and 29 percent could not name a second choice.

Other positive signs for Corzine in the Suffolk poll include comfort level, undecided voters and perception. More voters said they would be extremely or very comfortable with Corzine than Christie or Daggett, and more undecided voters chose Corzine than the other two when forced to pick. And when voters were asked to name the winner — regardless of who they planned to vote for — most said Corzine would be elected, 58 percent to Christie’s 24 percent and Daggett’s 2 percent, according to Suffolk.

A Rutgers-Eagleton poll released last week showed Corzine at 39 percent, Christie at 36 percent and Daggett at 20 percent, and a Monmouth University poll showed the major-party candidates tied at 39 percent and Daggett at 14 percent. An Oct. 14 Quinnipiac University poll gave Christie 41 percent, Corzine 40 percent and Daggett 14 percent.

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Filed under Chris Christie, Chris Dagget, Gov. Jon Corzine, New Jersey, NJ.com, opinion poll, the Star-Ledger

Eagleton Poll Gives Corzine 3-Point Lead; Daggett At 20


From RealClear Politics

A new Rutgers Eagleton poll gives Gov. Jon Corzine (D) a 3-point lead with less than two weeks to go in the New Jersey gubernatorial race. With this survey, Corzine has taken a lead in the RCP Average of polling for the very first time.

General Election Matchup
Corzine 39
Christie 36
Daggett 20
Don’t Know 5

Asked for their second choice, 34 percent of Daggett’s voters say they would pick Christie, while 28 percent say Corzine and 24 percent say they would not vote at all. Daggett is tied among voters who say they’ve heard a lot about his property tax plan; but Corzine actually pulls ahead among those who say they’ve heard nothing about it — which is a quarter of the electorate.

“Daggett continues to draw fairly evenly from both major party candidates,” said Eagleton’s Dave Redlawsk. “However, in a close race, it may make a difference that Daggett voters are people who would have been slightly more on Christie’s side than on Corzine’s in a two-way race. The underlying question is whether current Daggett supporters really will vote for him on Election Day, or whether they will opt for their second choice, one of the major party candidates.”

Redlawsk also states: “While Daggett is clearly having an impact on this race, it seems that on the current trajectory, the vote would have to be very close for his candidacy to make the deciding difference. … It’s important to remember, however, that in two recent New Jersey Governor’s races (in 1993 and 1997), the victor’s margin was only about 1 percent of the vote.”

Corzine and Christie are tied amongst men, 38-38, but Corzine has a 6-point advantage among women. His campaign’s attacks on Christie over the mammogram issue has become a defining issue in the race

Favorable Ratings
Corzine 40 / 52
Christie 39 / 42
Daggett 31 / 15

Corzine’s job approval rating is 29 percent, with 70 percent disapproving.

Voter engagement in the race appears to be lukewarm, with 36 percent saying they are following the election “very closely,” and only 38 percent say they’ve watched or listened to one of the candidate debates. That factor is one reason why Democrats have brought in national surrogates to generate free media attention on New York and Philadelphia television stations that otherwise tend not to cover Garden State politics closely.

The survey of 583 likely voters was conducted October 15-20, with a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percent.

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Filed under Chris Christie, Chris Dagget, Gov. Jon Corzine, New Jersey, opinion poll, Real Clear Politics

NYT poll: Corzine: 40%, Christie: 37%, Daggett: 14%

In the latest NY Times poll released today there’s some very good news for Governor Corzine which shows that this horse race for the New Jersey governorship is not over and as the candidates come down the stretch, one of them will win by a nose.

Among all registered voters, Mr. Corzine had the support of 40 percent, Mr. Christie 30 percent and Mr. Daggett 13 percent.

When narrowed to those determined to be likely voters, Mr. Corzine is still at 40 percent, while Mr. Christie receives 37 percent — a gap that is within the margin of sampling error — and Mr. Daggett draws 14 percent.

In the last two elections for governor only 49 percent of registered voters cast ballots.

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Filed under Chris Christie, Chris Dagget, Gov. Jon Corzine, New Jersey, NY Times, opinion poll

Patrick Murry: As the Voter Churns

Patrick Murry, founding director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, posted the following piece on his blog Real Numbers and Other Musings:

The conventional wisdom in New Jersey’s gubernatorial race is the better that Chris Daggett does, the worse Chris Christie does. Certainly, Daggett’s rise in the polls over the past four weeks is a nearly point for point match with Christie’s drop in support.

That certainly is true at the aggregate level, as I have noted elsewhere. Specifically, if you compare this week’s Quinnipiac Poll to the one they released September 1, you will find that Christie’s support dropped by 6 points, Corzine’s increased by 3, Daggett’s increased by 5 and Undecided decreased by 1. While Corzine made some gains, it seems the big switch was from Christie to Daggett, with Undecided remaining stable.

I stand by this analysis, but there may be more to this phenomenon than the naked eye can see. Research conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute with a panel of New Jersey voters indicates that this “net” effect may actually be masking a lot more individual-level churning in the electorate.

The first round of our online panel was interviewed September 23-28 (Wave 1). A total of 340 of these respondents then participated in a second round of interviews on October 9-14 (Wave 2). [Note: the intention of this panel study is to track individual level change over time. As such, it is not necessarily designed to be representative of candidate choice for the full electorate. That is why I refrain from reporting “horse race” percentages here. We’ll leave that for our standard telephone polling.]

The survey analysis divided the vote choice question into 14 separate categories. Those who make a candidate choice (Christie, Corzine, Daggett, Other) were asked if they are either “very sure” about their choice or “might change” their mind before election day – leading to a total of 8 categories. Those who initially indicate they are Undecided were then asked if they “lean” toward a candidate – producing 5 categories (Lean to Christie, Corzine, Daggett, Other or do not lean to any candidate). The final category is for those who say they will not cast a vote for governor on the ballot.

Read More >>> Here

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Filed under Chris Christie, Chris Dagget, Gov. Jon Corzine, Monmouth University, opinion poll, Patrick Murry

My Support For Corzine: It’s About Values

Now that Labor Day has past and the kids are back in school, the days are getting shorter and the nights a bit cooler, autumn is in the air, the leaves on the trees are changing color and people are starting to pay attention and notice the change. Another thing people are beginning to notice as summer turns to fall is that campaign season has begun in earnest.

With 18 days to go before Election Day family members, friends, colleagues and people on the street are not only asking who is running for office this year but who they should vote for. This year though, along with numerous local and state assembly seats up for grabs, New Jersey will be electing its governor.

New Jerseyans will have 3 candidates to choose from this year, current New Jersey Governor, Democrat Jon Corzine, is seeking re-election and is being challenged by Republican Chris Christie and Independent candidate Chris Daggett. When I am asked whom I will vote for and why, I am proud to say that I will be voting for Jon Corzine.

Why will I be casting my vote for Jon Corzine? It’s simple really, Jon Corzine best reflects the values that I believe in and that is what I tell others to consider when deciding on who to vote for.

As a progressive democrat, education, health-care, and fiscal responsibility are a few of the values that I hold dear and so does Governor Corzine. We also share a belief in and a desire to stand on our principles whether or not they are popular.

Jon Corzine knows that our children represent our future and that is why he has invested over $1.8 billion since 2006 in education while reducing the overall size of state government. He changed the formula for school funding so that money is more evenly distributed across the state and is increased for special education. He has championed the importance of early childhood education and for his efforts; New Jersey now leads the nation in preschool enrollment.

While the nation argues over health-care reform and whether or not to provide universal coverage to all, Jon Corzine enacted a child health care mandate that according to the governor’s website “expanded NJ Family Care to qualify 80,000 previously ineligible children, bringing the total number of insured kids to more than 570,000. The Governor also expanded access to Family Care for parents of enrolled children earning up to $40,000.”

As New Jersey’s governor, Jon Corzine had the foresight to see the recession coming and put together his own economic recovery and stimulus plan before anyone else, which has place the state ahead of the others in lessening the effects of the current economic recession.

Over the past two years Jon Corzine has reigned in spending and reduced the size of the state budget to become the only governor in the past sixty years to reduce the size of the government. He did this and was still able to increase funds for education and children’s health care.

Property taxes are always a big issue here and a real problem for many individuals. As we all know school taxes make up roughly 55 percent of our property tax bill each year, as governor, Jon Corzine has been able to hold the line on property taxes. Increases in the property tax rate has been slowed to just 3.7 percent in recent years, the lowest it has been in over a decade.

One reason for the slow down in the rise of property taxes has been Corzine’s investments in the education system. Prior to the Corzine Administration, the average school tax levy was 6%. This year, the school tax levy was 2.65%.

Over the past 4 years as governor, Jon Corzine has provided $7 billion of direct property tax relief to the residents of New Jersey; more than any other in history.

Jon Corzine is a governor who has the right priorities and the right set of values for me. He is exactly what New Jersey needs right now – a tested and experienced leader.

It is because he has the courage to do what is right, not what’s just popular at the moment and I believe, he genuinely cares about helping New Jerseyans that I will be voting for Jon Corzine’s re-election on November 3rd.

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Filed under Chris Christie, Chris Dagget, fiscal responsiblity, Gov. Jon Corzine, national recession, New Jersey, NJ FamilyCare, property taxes

Poll: Corzine Catches Up

By this time today it’s old news, but the race for Governor has now become a horse race where anyone can win.
An independent public poll released today by Fairleigh Dickinson University has Jon Corzine leading Chris Christie by 44%-43% with Chris Daggett getting 4%. When Daggett’s name is included, Corzine leads 38%-37% with Daggett getting 17%. It’s the first public poll of the year with Corzine ahead.

All recent polls show the race closing and Corzine with the momentum.

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Filed under Chris Christie, Chris Dagget, Gov. Jon Corzine, Polls