Category Archives: opinion poll

Poll: Bush still blamed for economy

From CNN Ticker Producer Alexander Mooney

More Americans blame the Bush administration for the nation’s economic troubles than the Obama administration, according to a new poll.

(CNN) – More than a year after President George W. Bush left office, more Americans continue to blame his administration over any other entity for the nation’s economic woes, according to a new poll.

In a New York Times/CBS News survey out Friday, 31 percent of Americans said the Bush administration is at fault for the current state of the economy while only 7 percent pointed their finger at President Obama and his team.

An additional 23 percent said the fault lies with Wall Street institutions while 13 percent assign the blame to Congress. Nearly 10 percent said the blame lies with all of them.

In a CNN/Opinion Research poll released last November, the public appeared split on who should be blamed if economic conditions don’t approve: 47 percent said Bush and congressional Republicans while 45 percent said Obama and congressional Democrats.

“The public still tends to blame the Republicans for current economic conditions,” said CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. “But looking forward is another matter. Americans think the GOP is responsible for getting us into this mess, but they think both parties are responsible for getting us out of it.”

The poll, conducted February 5-10, interviewed 1,084 Americans and carries a sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

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Filed under CBS News, CNN, opinion poll, President Bush, Republicans, The New York Times

Mulshine: N.J. Suburbs Still Get No Respect

The Star-Ledger’s Paul Mulshine had a pretty good column today, he points out how Chris Christie is making a big mistake by trying to court urban voters at the expense of the suburban voters. Mulshine points out that it was Monmouth and Ocean Counties that pushed Christie over the top, not Essex or Hudson. Why would he expect to make inroads in counties that are clearly opposed to his ideals?

Also of interest to residents in the 13th District, Mulshine gives another shout-out to Bob Brown. Brown ran as a Democrat in District 13 against Amy Handlin and Sam Thompson and did a better than expected job at the polls.

According to an internal Republican opinion poll that was leaked, Brown actually was leading Thompson with a week and a half left in the race but was done in by the anti-Corzine tsunami that washed over the bayshore area.

It’s a good read, check it out:

After I wrote a column last week critical of Gov.-elect Chris Christie’s transition team, which is packed with Trenton insiders and McGreevey administration retreads, I got an e-mail from Bob Brown.

“Where is the average Joe, the taxpayer from the suburbs?” Bob asked.

Nowhere, that’s where. If Christie was in the mood to put Democrats on his team, then he might have considered a Democrat like his old Seton Hall Law School classmate Brown. Brown is an ex-cop from Old Bridge who ran for the Assembly as a Democrat more conservative than the incumbent Republicans.

Brown didn’t win. But he did succeed in highlighting the issue that should be the No. 1 priority of the incoming Republican administration. And that’s the need for property tax relief for the suburbs.

A Rutgers-Eagleton Poll released Friday revealed that “New Jerseyans want their taxes cut; no other priority comes close,” in the words of the poll directors. And the tax they most want to see cut is the property tax, the poll showed.

But Christie made it clear immediately following his victory that the cities, not the suburbs, are his first priority. He spent the day after the election visiting Newark to kiss the ring of Democratic party boss Steve Adubato.

After paying his respects to Essex County, which went for Gov. Jon Corzine by a 65,000-vote margin, he blew a kiss to Hudson County, which went Democratic by a 46,000-vote margin. He included on his team a member in good standing of the Hudson Democratic machine, state Sen. Sandra Cunningham.

As for the aforementioned “average Joe from the suburbs,” Christie will be making the transition without him, even though it was the suburbs that gave Christie his victory, specifically the suburbs in the middle of the state.

Patrick Murray of the Monmouth University Polling Institute notes that turnout was down this year in every county except Ocean and Monmouth. And those two counties voted Republican by unprecedented margins, 70,000 and 64,000 respectively. But Republicans can’t count on that happening again, Murray said.

“It’s not clear this was a sea change in the way in which Jerseyans vote,” said Murray. “It was clearly just an anti-Corzine vote.”
In Murray’s view, and mine, Corzine committed political suicide with that ill-fated 2007 tour of the state to win support for his plan to borrow $38 billion against future tolls. That was the main factor in his losses in Monmouth, Ocean and Middlesex counties, all of which are heavily dependent on the toll roads.

Another factor was Corzine’s decision not to go on radio station 101.5 FM, which hosted that “pigs will fly” Statehouse rally in early 2008. That decision meant that Corzine got bashed without rebuttal by the station’s always amusing talk-show hosts for two months leading up to the election.

This permitted Christie to win despite his strategy, which was to focus on the cities rather than the suburbs. That strategy was a failure.

“Look at Newark, they were upside down 32,000 for him,” said Steve Acropolis, who is mayor of Brick Township in Ocean County. “East Orange was upside-down 10,000 for him.”

What saved Christie were the big suburbs in the 101.5 listening area such as Brick, where he piled up an 11,000-vote margin, and Toms River, where he got his biggest margin, more than 12,000.

Yet in a post-election meeting with the Ocean County mayors, the governor-elect told them they can’t expect to be getting more state aid as a result of their support. Acropolis said the suburban mayors don’t want special favors, just an equal share of state aid.

“I don’t want him to say we gave him the second highest vote total so we’re going to get extra stuff,” said Acropolis. “I just want what’s fair for our residents.”

Suburban residents realize next year will be a tough one because of the budget problems facing the state, he said. But their patience has a limit.

“He’s got four years and if he doesn’t do anything, he’ll be a one-term governor,” said the mayor.

That’s not a threat so much as a cold reality. The new map of New Jersey politics is not a promising one for Republicans. Bergen County used to ring up Republican margins as reliably as Ocean or Morris. But Christie managed to lose Bergen by a small margin. As for the cities, Christie is now the third Republican gubernatorial nominee in a row to fail miserably in a try at breaking the Democratic stranglehold on the urban vote.

That leaves those midstate suburbs as the battleground for any future elections. And they produced those huge margins not out of any great love for Christie, but out of intense dislike for Corzine, said pollster Murray.

“Nothing motivates a voter like anger,” said Murray. “And Christie had better hope they’re not angry in 2013.”

If he keeps up the way he’s going, they will be. And not at the Democrat.

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Filed under 13th Assembly District, Bob Brown, Chris Christie, Monmouth University, opinion poll, Patrick Murry, Paul Mulshine

New Jersey Governor: Going Down to the Wire

CQ Politics – Poll Tracker

The latest Fairleigh Dickinson University poll, conducted Oct. 22 through 28, finds the race for New Jersey governor where it’s been for most of the month: deadlocked.

In a three-way race, Republican challenger Chris Christie leads Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine 41 percent to 39 among likely voters, including those leaning one way or the other. Independent Chris Daggett takes 14 percent of the vote. The margin of error is 4 percent.

Christie continues to lead among independent voters, at 37 percent, with Daggett at 27 percent and Corzine at 22 percent. Daggett receives the support of 13 percent each of Democrats and Republican likely voters.

The vast majority of respondents have now heard of Daggett, the Fairleigh Dickinson poll finds, but 31 percent have no opinion of him. His favorable and unfavorable ratings have both risen — to 28 percent favorable and 23 percent unfavorable.

Both Christie and Corzine continue to have a net unfavorable rating among likely voters. Christie’s rating is 44 to 41 percent unfavorable-favorable, compared to 42 to 35 percent in the FDU poll released Oct. 6. Corzine is at 54 to 39 percent, almost identical to where he was at the beginning of the month.

CQ Politics currently rates the race a Tossup.

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Filed under Chris Christie, Chris Dagget, CQ politics, Gov. Jon Corzine, New Jersey, opinion poll

13th District Assembly Race Up For Grabs; Poll Shows Brown Up On Thompson, Within Striking Distance of Handlin

It seems as though an upset is in the making in the 13th legislative district, according to a recent poll.

According to this poll, Democratic challenger Robert “Bob” Brown, has opened a commanding lead over Republican incumbent Sam Thompson and it has the Thompson/Handlin campaign scrambling for last minute cash to flood mailboxes throughout the district with campaign literature. Thompson/Handlin campaign signs have also been flooding the area within the past 24 hours since the results of the poll has been know to the campaign.

Both men, Brown and Thompson reside in Middlessex’s Old Bridge Township, and it is in Old Bridge where Thompson has lost a significant portion of his base to Bob Brown.

Brown in the mean time, has also been polling very strong throughout the rest of the district, thanks inpart to two major endorsments by the Newark Star-Ledger columnist Paul Mulshine and NJ 101.5 Morning Show host Jim Gearhart:

Paul Mulshine said…. “Bob Brown is the sole democrat worth a damn in this state…..” (October 19, 2009)

Jim Gearhart added “I endorse Bob Brown completely” (Oct. 22,2009)
Thanks to these endorsements Brown is also within striking distance of the other incumbant in the race, Amy Handlin. And what makes this poll even more eye opening is that Brown’s coattails seem to be extending towards his running mate Jim Grenafege, who is also within striking distance of Thompson.
You can learn more about both Bob Brown and Jim Grenafege by watching their campaign video’s (below) or by logging onto their website assembly13.org

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Filed under 13th Assembly District, Bob Brown, Democratic Candidate, Jim Grenafege, Monmouth County, opinion poll, Paul Mulshine, Republican Candidate, Sam Thompson

Corzine Up By 9% in New Poll Over Christie

By Chris Megerian/Statehouse Bureau
October 26, 2009

New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine has a nine-point lead vs. Republican gubernatorial candidate Chris Christie, according to a Suffolk University poll released today.

With eight days left until the election and most polls showing the New Jersey governor’s race as too close to call, the Suffolk University poll showed Corzine leading 42 percent to 33 percent and places independent candidate Chris Daggett far behind at 7 percent. That is the incumbent’s biggest lead all year, after Corzine spent months trailing Christie, at times by double digits.

Most recent polls have showed the governor’s race at a dead heat, with Daggett’s support as high as 20 percent.

The Suffolk poll — the first by that institution on the 2009 New Jersey governor’s race — is unusual compared with other independent surveys because it included all 12 candidates on the ballot. Most other polls have included just Corzine, Christie and Daggett, who was the only independent candidate to qualify for public matching funds and participate in the debates.

Daggett’s support dropped when his name was mixed with the other independents, as it will appear on ballots in some counties.

“Independent Chris Daggett struggles to be found on the ballot, which benefits Jon Corzine, whose campaign is peaking at the right time for him,” said David Paleologos, director of the Political Research Center at Suffolk University in Boston. “The poll tells us that voters believe Corzine is the best choice of the twelve candidates and the most comfortable choice of the major three. The bottom line is that, if this trend holds, it will be an amazing comeback for Jon Corzine.”

The poll, conducted among 400 likely voters from Oct. 22 through Oct. 25, has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points. Among the 10 percent of voters favoring one of the 10 independent candidates, 29 percent chose Christie as their second choice, while 24 percent picked Corzine, 19 percent chose another independent and 29 percent could not name a second choice.

Other positive signs for Corzine in the Suffolk poll include comfort level, undecided voters and perception. More voters said they would be extremely or very comfortable with Corzine than Christie or Daggett, and more undecided voters chose Corzine than the other two when forced to pick. And when voters were asked to name the winner — regardless of who they planned to vote for — most said Corzine would be elected, 58 percent to Christie’s 24 percent and Daggett’s 2 percent, according to Suffolk.

A Rutgers-Eagleton poll released last week showed Corzine at 39 percent, Christie at 36 percent and Daggett at 20 percent, and a Monmouth University poll showed the major-party candidates tied at 39 percent and Daggett at 14 percent. An Oct. 14 Quinnipiac University poll gave Christie 41 percent, Corzine 40 percent and Daggett 14 percent.

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Filed under Chris Christie, Chris Dagget, Gov. Jon Corzine, New Jersey, NJ.com, opinion poll, the Star-Ledger

Eagleton Poll Gives Corzine 3-Point Lead; Daggett At 20


From RealClear Politics

A new Rutgers Eagleton poll gives Gov. Jon Corzine (D) a 3-point lead with less than two weeks to go in the New Jersey gubernatorial race. With this survey, Corzine has taken a lead in the RCP Average of polling for the very first time.

General Election Matchup
Corzine 39
Christie 36
Daggett 20
Don’t Know 5

Asked for their second choice, 34 percent of Daggett’s voters say they would pick Christie, while 28 percent say Corzine and 24 percent say they would not vote at all. Daggett is tied among voters who say they’ve heard a lot about his property tax plan; but Corzine actually pulls ahead among those who say they’ve heard nothing about it — which is a quarter of the electorate.

“Daggett continues to draw fairly evenly from both major party candidates,” said Eagleton’s Dave Redlawsk. “However, in a close race, it may make a difference that Daggett voters are people who would have been slightly more on Christie’s side than on Corzine’s in a two-way race. The underlying question is whether current Daggett supporters really will vote for him on Election Day, or whether they will opt for their second choice, one of the major party candidates.”

Redlawsk also states: “While Daggett is clearly having an impact on this race, it seems that on the current trajectory, the vote would have to be very close for his candidacy to make the deciding difference. … It’s important to remember, however, that in two recent New Jersey Governor’s races (in 1993 and 1997), the victor’s margin was only about 1 percent of the vote.”

Corzine and Christie are tied amongst men, 38-38, but Corzine has a 6-point advantage among women. His campaign’s attacks on Christie over the mammogram issue has become a defining issue in the race

Favorable Ratings
Corzine 40 / 52
Christie 39 / 42
Daggett 31 / 15

Corzine’s job approval rating is 29 percent, with 70 percent disapproving.

Voter engagement in the race appears to be lukewarm, with 36 percent saying they are following the election “very closely,” and only 38 percent say they’ve watched or listened to one of the candidate debates. That factor is one reason why Democrats have brought in national surrogates to generate free media attention on New York and Philadelphia television stations that otherwise tend not to cover Garden State politics closely.

The survey of 583 likely voters was conducted October 15-20, with a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percent.

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Filed under Chris Christie, Chris Dagget, Gov. Jon Corzine, New Jersey, opinion poll, Real Clear Politics

NYT poll: Corzine: 40%, Christie: 37%, Daggett: 14%

In the latest NY Times poll released today there’s some very good news for Governor Corzine which shows that this horse race for the New Jersey governorship is not over and as the candidates come down the stretch, one of them will win by a nose.

Among all registered voters, Mr. Corzine had the support of 40 percent, Mr. Christie 30 percent and Mr. Daggett 13 percent.

When narrowed to those determined to be likely voters, Mr. Corzine is still at 40 percent, while Mr. Christie receives 37 percent — a gap that is within the margin of sampling error — and Mr. Daggett draws 14 percent.

In the last two elections for governor only 49 percent of registered voters cast ballots.

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Filed under Chris Christie, Chris Dagget, Gov. Jon Corzine, New Jersey, NY Times, opinion poll